from Faarea Masud and Natalie Sherman, Business journalists, BBC News
Shares in Donald Trump’s social media company rose after he survived an assassination attempt on Saturday.
Shares in Trump Media, which runs the Truth Social platform, closed up about 31%. The price had risen as much as 70% in premarket trading over the weekend before falling again.
Analysts said the gains reflected bets that the shooting had improved Mr Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential election in November.
A bullet grazed the former president’s ear during one of his campaign rallies, shortly before the gunman was shot dead by a Secret Service sniper.
“I’m supposed to be dead, I shouldn’t be here,” Trump said said in one of his first interviews since the attack.
Billionaire Elon Musk is among those who have officially supported Mr Trump since the attack.
“As the election intensifies, investors are betting that more individuals will tune into the social media platform to express their views, as well as be among the first to see posts from President Trump and his team,” said Susan Schmidt, head of public. equity in the Wisconsin State Board of Investments.
However, Wall Street analyst Cary Leahey said it was a trade “about the election more than the business,” noting that Truth Social had struggled to grow.
“If [Trump’s] the chances of being selected increase, is his firm more valuable? Some marketers think so.
“I’m confident that if Biden were to withdraw, Truth Social’s stock would drop,” he added.
Trump founded the Trump Media and Technology Group in 2021 after he lost the 2020 presidential election and was temporarily removed from major social platforms, including Twitter and Facebook, which accused him of inciting violence following the Capitol Hill riots.
Truth Social largely follows the same format as X, formerly Twitter, and has around 2 million active users, although claims vary according to different sources.
Trump is the majority shareholder.
At the stock’s current price — roughly $40 a share — its holdings are worth roughly $5 billion — far more than analysts say is justified by the company’s sales and operations.
The firm’s share price has been extremely volatile, often linked to events in Mr Trump’s life – and his re-election chances.
Shares of its predecessor company began rising in January after Trump defeated Republican challengers in the primaries.
The price rose further after Trump Media officially debuted on the Nasdaq stock market in March.
But the stock fell at the start of his criminal trial in April, in which he was later convicted of fraud charges related to hush money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
The current share price remains below levels seen in March.
“There is no actual underlying business performance of the company that supports this current ‘price,’ but the buyers are likely political supporters who are buying stock to shore up the President’s fortune before the election,” said Thomas J Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital.
On Saturday, images of Mr Trump defiantly raising his fist to show he had survived the assassination drew boos from his supporters.
Trump later told US media that he felt he had been saved “by fate or by God”.
“The most incredible thing was that I happened not only to return [my head] but to return at the right time and in the right amount,” he said, adding that the bullet that grazed his ear could easily have killed him.
A member of the audience was killed in the attack, while two other people were seriously injured. The gunman has been named as Thomas Matthew Crooks.
The attacker’s motive remains unclear.